Automated vehicles (AVs) can reduce congestion and save $1,400 per year per AV with 10 percent market penetration.
Potential impacts and hurdles for automated vehicle (AV) technology.
Made Public Date
02/23/2015

13

Nationwide
United States
Identifier
2015-00978
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Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations for Capitalizing on Self-Driven Vehicles

Summary Information

This paper reviewed the potential impacts of automated vehicles (AVs) in the United States. The report also discussed barriers to implementation and provided policy recommendations. A literature review was conducted to ascertain system benefits and impacts on traffic safety, congestion, and travel behaviors, and then a high level analysis was conducted to monetize benefits relative to market penetration.

FINDINGS

Congestion benefits were estimated to accrue early after deployment followed by safety benefits as the system matures and market penetration levels increase. For example, with 10 percent market penetration, congestion savings represented about 66 percent of benefits and crash savings represented about 21 percent. However, at 90 percent market penetration, the distribution was 33 percent and 58 percent, respectively. With respect to cost savings, estimates were based on economic consequences as well as social impacts (comprehensive costs) to account for a wider range of consequences (i.e., such a pain, suffering, and the statistical value life). When including comprehensive costs, crash cost savings were about 300 percent greater than estimates from economic cost savings alone. The data below excerpted from the source report summarize overall results.

Congestion Costs

 

10% Market Share

50% Market Share

90% Market Share

Travel Time Savings (Hours)

756 million

1680 million

2772 million

Fuel Savings (Gallons)

102 million

224 million

724 million

Total Savings

$16.8

$37.4

$63.0

Savings per AV

$1,400

$830

$970

Crash Cost Savings from AVs

 

10% Market Share

50% Market Share

90% Market Share

Lives Saved (per year)

1,100

9,600

21,700

Fewer Crashes

211,000

1,880,000

4,220,000

Economic Cost Savings

$5.5 B

$48.8 B

$109.7 B

Comprehensive Cost Savings

$17.7 B

$158.1 B

$355.4 B

Economic Cost Savings per AV

$460

$1,080

$1,690

Comprehensive Cost Savings per AV

$1,470

$3,500

$5,460

Other AV Impacts

 

10% Market Share

50% Market Share

90% Market Share

Parking Savings

$3.0

$11.3

$16.3

Savings per AV

$250

$250

$250

VMT Increase

2.00%

7.50%

9.00%

Change in Total # Vehicles

-8.30%

-31.00%

-44.80%

Overall Impacts

 

10% Market Share

50% Market Share

90% Market Share

Annual Savings: Economic Costs Only

$25.3 B

$97.5 B

$189.0 B

Annual Savings: Comprehensive Costs

$37.6 B

$206.8 B

$434.7 B

Savings Per AV: Economic Costs Only

$2,110

$2,160

$2,910

Savings Per AV: Comprehensive Costs

$3,120

$4,580

$6,680

Net Present Value of AV Benefits minus
Purchase Price: Economic Costs Only

$6,050

$11,430

$19,130

Net Present Value of AV Benefits minus
Purchase Price: Comprehensive Costs

$13,730

$29,840

$47,810

Assumptions

Number of AVs Operating in U.S.

0.5

0.75

0.9

Freeway Congestion Benefit (delay reduction)

5%

10%

15%

Arterial Congestion Benefit

13%

18%

25%

Fuel Efficiency Benefit

8%

13%

13%

Non-AV Following-Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Benefit (Freeway)

20%

15%

10%

VMT Increase per AV

10%

10%

10%

% of AVs Shared across Users

10%

10%

10%

Added Purchase Price for AV Capabilities

$10,000

$5,000

$3,000

Discount Rate

10%

10%

10%

Vehicle Lifetime (years)

15

15

15

Initial costs were assumed to add approximately $10,000 to the purchase price of a new vehicle at a 10 percent market penetration level and then fall to about $3,000 per vehicle at a 90 percent market penetration.

Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations for Capitalizing on Self-Driven Vehicles

Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations for Capitalizing on Self-Driven Vehicles
Publication Sort Date
01/12/2013
Author
Fagnant, Daniel J. and Kara Kockelman
Publisher
Paper Presented at the 93rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

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