Mathematical Models Forecast Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) Enhanced Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) Will Address 88 Percent of Vehicle-vs-Vehicle Crashes 15 Years After Mass Introduction of These Technologies.
Study Estimated Safety Benefits of ADAS-Enhanced V2X Technologies Considering Crash Statistics from Japan, Germany, and USA.
Nationwide, Japan
Nationwide, Germany
Nationwide, United States
Reducing Fatalities in Road Crashes in Japan, Germany and USA with V2X-Enhanced ADAS
Summary Information
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have been recognized for their potential to enhance traffic safety, though on-board sensors like cameras, radar, and lidar, however there are limitations in fully preventing crashes. Some ways to overcome these limitations include strategies such as early detection of Non-Line-of-Sight (NLOS) vehicles and Vulnerable Road Users (VRU) — including pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists. Additionally, early recognition of other road users' intentions through Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) technology can also enhance safety. This study evaluates how basic V2X, when integrated with ADAS, can help reduce fatal crashes involving vehicles and VRU, using crash statistics from Japan, Germany, and the USA for the years 2021, 2020, and 2020, respectively. Furthermore, the study quantifies how Collective Perception V2X can enhance the communication effectiveness between vehicles, providing additional protection for VRUs that might not be adequately covered by basic V2X and ADAS technologies.
METHODOLOGY
This study assumed 100 percent ADAS market penetration in the calculation of the total number of crashes. In this study, three possible communication paths between vehicles were considered: i) Basic V2X - using Basic Safety Messages (BSM) Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V), ii) Collective Perception V2X using Sensor Data Sharing Messages (SDSM) Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I), and iii) Collective Perception V2X using SDSM V2V. The total effective SDSM communication rate peaks at around year 12 after market introduction. The additional benefit of SDSM communication on top of BSM communication is non-zero across all 30 years under study, from the assumed hypothetical deployment year of the V2X technologies.
FINDINGS
- Results indicated that, in year 15 after the hypothetical V2X mass introduction, a total of 88 percent of vehicle-vs-vehicle crashes are addressed by V2X-enhanced ADAS. At year 30, 98 percent of the vehicle-vs-vehicle crashes are addressed by V2X-enhanced ADAS.
- This study found that, as the share of BSM grows over time, they cover almost the complete number of vehicle-vs-vehicle crashes in the year 30 after the supposed deployment.
- The study also estimated crash reduction potential for vehicle-vs-VRU crashes: 78 percent were addressed in year 15 and 89 percent were addressed in year 30 after V2X mass introduction.
- The SDSM V2I system between vehicles and smart intersections was estimated to contribute to reducing vehicle-VRU crashes, with an effective communication rate increasing from six percent at year 10 to 21 percent by year 30.
