Projections for Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) in Australia Estimated $26 Billion (USD) in Net Benefits per Year at 50 Percent Market Penetration and Roughly $65 Billion (USD) per Year at 100 Percent Penetration.

METHODOLOGY

Three BITRE scenarios were considered regarding the possible uptake of CAVs: i) "Base Case” (also called the “Central Case”) scenario; ii) "Society Embraces AV” scenario; and iii) "Broad Barriers to AV Adoption” scenario.  Uptake under all three scenarios was assumed low until 2030 with subsequent uptake levels unique to each scenario reaching 30 percent fleet penetration under the "Society embraces AV” scenario by 2040, 30 percent fleet penetration under the “Base Case” by 2050, and 30 percent fleet penetration under the “Broad barriers to AV adoption" scenario by 2070. Impacts of CAVs were forecasted using a large number of assumptions including projections of historical data (year 2020) and evidence from the previous literature. A key assumption was that by 2050, a light CAV could achieve similar benefits to those of an average vehicle on 75 percent of the distance traveled. However, the study noted potential uncertainties in long-term projections due to factors like population growth, shifts in demand, and evolving technology landscapes.

FINDINGS  

Findings include Australian Dollars (AUD) converted to US Dollars (USD CY2020).

• This study estimated that from 2020 to 2070, CAVs would have a positive net benefit of $1.4 trillion AUD (0.9 trillion USD) to the Australian community under the “Base Case” uptake scenario, considering all impacts including economic and safety impacts.
• This study also revealed that reduced crash costs would be worth $152 billion AUD ($98 billion USD) with more than 8,000 lives saved.
• Reduced travel time costs for private car users, as they would no longer need to perform the driving task, were estimated at $583 billion AUD ($377 billion USD).
• Reduced business time costs were almost $250 billion AUD ($162 billion US D), along with reduced commercial vehicle (including light commercial) and bus time costs of more than $700 billion AUD ($452 billion USD).
• Together, business and freight time cost savings were estimated at $962 billion AUD ($621 billion USD).
• Reduced fuel use was forecasted to amount to $54 billion AUD ($35 billion USD) due to smoother driving, and light and heavy vehicle platooning for regional and long distance and travel.
• Increased road capacity benefit of $321 billion AUD ($207 billion USD) was estimated over the 50-year period analysis.