Study Estimates 55 Percent Annual Cost Savings from Adopting Fully Automated Buses by 2040 Compared to No Action Scenario.
Study Using Bus Fleets Operating in Austin, Texas Estimates Future Productivity Benefits from Including Fully Automated Buses.
Austin, Texas, United States
Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit Fleets
Summary Information
It has been widely recognized that emerging technologies may improve fleet operations in the transportation sector by cost-effectively reducing energy use. This study analyzed both battery-electric buses and self-driving (fully automated) buses from both cost and qualitative perspectives, using the Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s bus fleet in Austin, Texas, and also developed adoption schedules for these technologies.
METHODOLOGY
Overall, this study compared three implementation scenarios with a No Action i.e. do-nothing scenario. These implementation scenarios were:
(1) Electric Bus Scenario:
-12-year life for each bus, equating to Capital Metro replacing 30 buses during an average year.
-Every new bus purchased was electric, beginning in 2020.
-Two electric-bus adoption scenarios were considered, one representing a ten percent annual reduction in battery costs, and the other representing a more conservative five percent annual reduction in battery costs. These scenarios were repeated for both a $300,000 and $400,000 diesel bus purchase price.
(2) Fully Automated Bus Scenario:
-Assumed that a self-driving bus could not be put into service until the driver retired.
-Assumed that the presence of a trip attendant on-board would still be required, with an average annual cost of $67,500.
-A fleet of 360 fully automated buses would require only 360 (180 × two shifts) trip attendants, costing approximately $24.44 million annually.
(3) Co-Adoption Schedule Scenario:
-For each new bus, the same assumptions from the previous two scenarios were used.
Even though fully automated vehicles were not yet widely available, this study used various estimates that were available to analyze and discuss the costs associated with the implementation of fully automated technology in buses.
FINDINGS
- Assuming $300,000 for the diesel bus purchase price, the results showed 55 percent annual cost savings from adopting fully automated buses (Scenario Two) by 2040, compared to the No Action scenario.
- Assuming a ten percent reduction in battery costs for the electric buses, the results showed 58.3 percent annual cost savings from implementing the co-adoption scenario (Scenario Three) by 2040, compared to the No Action scenario.
- A direct cost analysis revealed that battery electric buses are not yet cost-competitive with diesel-powered buses, while fully automated buses (without a driver or full-time attendant) should be cost-competitive immediately.
- Overall, this study demonstrated the feasibility of replacing diesel transit buses with new alternatives, namely the electric and fully automated technologies.
