A Simulation Model of the U.S Economy Estimates the Potential Macroeconomic Impacts of Automated Driving Systems in Long Haul Trucking.
Nationwide, United States
Macroeconomic Impacts of Automated Driving Systems in Long-Haul Trucking
Summary Information
An assessment was performed on the potential macroeconomic impacts resulting from the adoption of higher-level automated driving systems (ADS) on the long-haul trucking industry. The analysis simulated the macroeconomic effects of the introduction of automation in the long-haul trucking sector in the United States using USAGE-Hwy model. The simulation introduced productivity shocks to the trucking sector from labor costs savings, fuel cost savings, capital cost savings, and safety improvements that are expected from automation. The simulations also considered the upfront cost of acquiring the technology by examining three time profiles for the adoption of automation: slow, medium, and fast adoption paths.
- Fast scenario: 75 percent of new vehicle purchases involve ADS in 10 years of the technology becoming available.
- Medium scenario: 48 percent of trucking firms will have begun adopting 10 years after the technology becomes available.
- Slow scenario: 19 percent of trucking firms will have begun adopting 10 years after the technology becomes available.
Simulations of the evolution of the economy with the addition of policy shocks (i.e., productivity shocks to the trucking sector that are expected from automation) were compared to the baseline scenario of a business-as-usual evolution of the economy to reflect the expected impacts of automation in long-haul trucking. The analysis incorporated estimates of expected capital cost savings, fuel cost savings, and safety improvements in addition to labor cost savings resulting from the removal of human drivers in the trucking industry. These estimated cost savings were balanced against higher upfront costs for purchasing the technology. Simulation results showed that SAE Level 4 (High Driving Automation) and Level 5 (Full Driving Automation) automation of the long-haul trucking industry would do the following:
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