Automated vehicles can save more than 1000 lives annually with 10 percent market penetration.
Potential impacts and hurdles for automated vehicle (AV) technology.
Made Public Date
02/23/2015

13

Nationwide
United States
Identifier
2015-00977
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Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations for Capitalizing on Self-Driven Vehicles

Summary Information

This paper reviewed the potential impacts of automated vehicles (AVs) in the United States. The report also discussed barriers to implementation and provided policy recommendations. A literature review was conducted to ascertain system benefits and impacts on traffic safety, congestion, and travel behaviors, and then a high level analysis was conducted to monetize benefits relative to market penetration.

FINDINGS

Congestion benefits were estimated to accrue early after deployment followed by safety benefits as the system matures and market penetration levels increase.
  • For example, with 10 percent market penetration, congestion savings represented about 66 percent of benefits and crash savings represented about 21 percent.
  • At 90 percent market penetration, the distribution was 33 percent and 58 percent, respectively. With respect to cost savings, estimates were based on economic consequences as well as social impacts (comprehensive costs) to account for a wider range of consequences (i.e., such a pain, suffering, and the statistical value life).
  • When including comprehensive costs, crash cost savings were about 300 percent greater than estimates from economic cost savings alone. The data below excerpted from the source report summarize overall results.
Crash Cost Savings from AVs
10% Market Share
50% Market Share
90% Market Share
Lives Saved (per year)
1,100
9,600
21,700
Fewer Crashes
211,000
1,880,000
4,220,000
Economic Cost Savings
$5.5 B
$48.8 B
$109.7 B
Comprehensive Cost Savings
$17.7 B
$158.1 B
$355.4 B
Economic Cost Savings per AV
$460
$1,080
$1,690
Comprehensive Cost Savings per AV
$1,470
$3,500
$5,460

Congestion Costs
10% Market Share
50% Market Share
90% Market Share
Travel Time Savings (Hours)
756 million
1680 million
2772 million
Fuel Savings (Gallons)
102 million
224 million
724 million
Total Savings
$16.8
$37.4
$63.0
Savings per AV
$1,400
$830
$970

Other AV Impacts
10% Market Share
50% Market Share
90% Market Share
Parking Savings
$3.0
$11.3
$16.3
Savings per AV
$250
$250
$250
VMT Increase
2.00%
7.50%
9.00%
Change in Total # Vehicles
-8.30%
-31.00%
-44.80%

Overall Impacts
10% Market Share
50% Market Share
90% Market Share
Annual Savings: Economic Costs Only
$25.3 B
$97.5 B
$189.0 B
Annual Savings: Comprehensive Costs
$37.6 B
$206.8 B
$434.7 B
Savings Per AV: Economic Costs Only
$2,110
$2,160
$2,910
Savings Per AV: Comprehensive Costs
$3,120
$4,580
$6,680
Net Present Value of AV Benefits minus
Purchase Price: Economic Costs Only
$6,050
$11,430
$19,130
Net Present Value of AV Benefits minus
Purchase Price: Comprehensive Costs
$13,730
$29,840
$47,810

Assumptions
Number of AVs Operating in U.S.
0.5
0.75
0.9
Freeway Congestion Benefit (delay reduction)
5%
10%
15%
Arterial Congestion Benefit
13%
18%
25%
Fuel Efficiency Benefit
8%
13%
13%
Non-AV Following-Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Benefit (Freeway)
20%
15%
10%
VMT Increase per AV
10%
10%
10%
% of AVs Shared across Users
10%
10%
10%
Added Purchase Price for AV Capabilities
$10,000
$5,000
$3,000
Discount Rate
10%
10%
10%
Vehicle Lifetime (years)
15
15
15

Initial costs were assumed to add approximately $10,000 to the purchase price of a new vehicle at a 10 percent market penetration level, and then fall to about $3,000 per vehicle at a 90 percent market penetration.

Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations for Capitalizing on Self-Driven Vehicles

Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations for Capitalizing on Self-Driven Vehicles
Publication Sort Date
01/12/2013
Author
Fagnant, Daniel J. and Kara Kockelman
Publisher
Paper Presented at the 93rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

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