This research report provided a systematic synthesis of contemporary smart driving technologies, including their technological maturity and their potential impacts.
In June 2015 a Texas-wide survey was conducted using the Qualtric web-based survey tool. A total of 1,364 survey responses were completed and researchers used the data to project a framework of vehicle fleets in Texas (2015 to 2045) including the potential adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technologies under different technology pricing scenarios (1%, 5%, and 10% annual price-reduction rates). Within the surveys, respondents were asked several anticipatory questions including their vehicle history as well as their future vehicle plans, their technology preferences (buying/selling their vehicles or simply adding new technologies to their current vehicles), and their comfort and willingness to pay (WTP) towards connected and autonomous vehicles.
Results were used to help traffic engineers, planners, and policy makers forecast long term (year 2015-2045) adoption of these technologies under three different technology acquisition-cost scenarios (i.e., 1%, 5%, and 10% annual price-reduction rates).
Among single-function (Level 1) and combined function (Level 2) automation technologies:
- Traffic sign recognition is the least appealing (52.5 percent of respondents reported $0 WTP), currently least adopted (2 percent), and anticipated to have the least future adoption (in 2045) by Texans.
- Blind-spot monitoring and emergency automated braking are the two most appealing technologies for Texans. Around half (50.8 percent) of the respondents are very interested in blind-spot monitoring, only 17.3 percent are not interested in it, and the smallest proportion of the respondents (only 23.9 percent) indicate $0 WTP for it. Emergency automatic braking is the second most interesting technology for Texans, with 46.7 percent of the very-interested respondents, only 23 percent of the not-interested respondents, and only 28.8 percent of the respondents with $0 WTP.
- The future adoption rate of connectivity (for DSRC-based basic safety messaging) is estimated to be 57.9 percent under 10 percent yearly price reduction scenario. However, it was also found that self-driving valet services and full self-driving (Level 4) technology is estimated to reach adoption rates of just 34.8 percent and 38.5 percent respectively and limited self-driving (Level 3) is estimated to be the least popular at a 16.9 percent adoption rate.
- More than half of the respondents were not willing to pay anything to add the advanced automation technologies such as self-parking valet, limited self-driving [Level 3], and full-self driving [Level 4] to their current vehicle. However, comparatively fewer (only around 37.9 percent) indicated $0 WTP to add connectivity.
- Average WTP (of the respondents with a non- zero WTP to add connectivity, and Level 3 and Level 4 upgrades to their vehicles (new or existing) are $110, $5,551, and $14,589, respectively.
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