Use combination of incentives and disincentives to encourage electric vehicle adoption.
Modeling effort finds that a combination of incentives to encourage the purchase electric vehicles and disincentives for owning combustion vehicles works best to accelerate adoption of electric vehicles.
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Analysis and Testing of Electric Car Incentive Scenarios in the Netherlands and Norway


Both the Norwegian and Dutch federal governments have set a goal of selling only zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) nationwide by 2030. This policy has the additional specification that this goal should not be achieved through command policies (i.e. a total ban on the sale of combustion vehicles), but rather through more voluntary market adoption. This widespread adoption of electric vehicles should help the Netherlands and Norway achieve carbon reduction goals.


To study the potential strength of different electric vehicle incentive policies in the Netherlands and Norway, the research adapted an existing system dynamics model of the EU vehicle market called PTTMAM to the Norwegian and Dutch markets. To specify the model the team used historic data about the affect of different policies on electric vehicle adoption. Aside from baseline scenarios, the models tested a combination of increased taxes on vehicle emissions, manufacturer penalties based on the number of combustion vehicles produced, and consumer incentives for purchasing electric vehicles.

Lessons Learned

  • "Polluter pays" taxes are relatively ineffective at encouraging electric vehicle adoption
  • A combination of incentives and disincentives like emissions taxes on car owners works best to increase electric vehicle uptake.
Source Information
System Engineering Elements

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